As the fourth-largest holder of gas reserves in the world and with pipeline capacities connected to Iran's gas network (about 50 million cubic meters), Turkmenistan is an operational and immediate option for supplying the country's gas needs in the upcoming cold season. It is estimated that the gas imbalance in the country costs about $20 billion annually.
Consequences of Gas Imbalance
This figure includes $5 billion in damages to major industries, $11 billion in costs for alternative liquid fuels in the industrial sector and power plants, and $4 billion in foreign exchange losses due to the lack of gas exports to Iraq and Turkey. The experience of winter 2024, when a 25 to 50 percent gas restriction was imposed on steel and other industries, shows that the socio-economic consequences of these outages are far beyond raw numbers.
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Experts warn that the continuation of this trend makes investment in energy-intensive industries uneconomical and drives investors towards regional markets. In this context, Turkmenistan is introduced as a reliable partner for supplying the gas needed by Iran.
History of Cooperation and New Opportunities
The three-decade history of gas interactions between Turkmenistan and Iran, the implementation of gas swap contracts with Turkey and Azerbaijan, and the signing of a document to develop gas cooperation between Tehran and Ashgabat in 2024 indicate this country's readiness to cooperate with Iran. Abdoljalal Eiri, the representative of Golestan and head of the Iran-Turkmenistan Friendship Group, has stated that "the infrastructure and gas transmission line between Iran and Turkmenistan have existed in the past, and if an agreement is reached, it is possible to import about 25 to 27 million cubic meters of gas per day."
Given the urgency of energy supply in the upcoming winter, importing gas from Turkmenistan is no longer a strategic choice but an urgent necessity. Experts suggest that the Ministry of Oil should finalize a twenty-year contract with Turkmenistan for gas supply as soon as possible.
Alongside Turkmenistan, there is also the option of Russia; however, due to land proximity and border infrastructure, the route for gas supply from Turkmenistan seems more operational. The volume of imported gas should be calculated and allocated based on the actual needs of energy-intensive industries. Additionally, the cost of gas imports will be repaid from the added value that industries generate throughout the year.
Ultimately, it seems that to prevent the bitter experience of winter 2024 from recurring, focusing on cooperation with Turkmenistan and quickly finalizing the necessary contracts is vital. Otherwise, the recurrence of industrial outages and heavy costs will burden the economy.
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