Crude oil prices are fluctuating within a limited range on November 4, 2026 (Aban 13, 1405). Yesterday, news of progress in negotiations between Iran and the U.S. lowered oil prices, but subsequent denials halted this trend.
Analysis of the Oil Market Situation
This situation is significant for analysts and energy market participants, as oil prices affect energy costs and global inflation. Global inflation is also transmitted to the gold and currency markets through central bank policies. Therefore, tracking negotiations and economic data in this context is essential.
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Reports and Reactions
Yesterday, Al Arabiya reported that Iran and the U.S. have reached agreements regarding the nuclear program and blocked funds. The media announced that Washington has approved the draft memorandum and a step-by-step agreement is underway. This news intensified selling pressure in the oil market.
However, Iranian officials did not find the U.S. response to Tehran's demands convincing, and an Iranian news outlet also denied the proximity of the two sides to an agreement. Following these denials, selling pressure in the oil market decreased.
Donald Trump, the President of the United States, reiterated that there is no immediate plan to attack Iran. Nevertheless, the risk of escalating tensions remains high. Analysts predict that until clear progress is made in negotiations, the decline in oil prices will remain limited.
Price Chart and Predictions
In the daily chart, the crude oil contract fell to the bottom of the price channel yesterday and then rebounded upwards. The price channel is a range between two upper and lower boundaries within which the price fluctuates. In a bullish scenario, resistance at $110 is the next target. In a bearish scenario, breaking the bottom of the channel could bring the price first to $87 and then closer to support at $68.
In the 4-hour chart, the price has remained near the bottom of the channel, with a peak of $98.82 acting as resistance. Today, reports from ADP and ISM Services in the U.S. will be released, and tomorrow, unemployment statistics and on Friday, the U.S. non-farm payroll report and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index are on the agenda. However, market focus will still be on the Iran-U.S. negotiations.
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