Chris Wright, the U.S. Secretary of Energy, announced the start of the legalization process for sanctioned tankers. This action is aimed at reducing transportation costs following the Hormuz crisis. Wright stated at an event in New York that the U.S. government is developing a verification process for tankers that were previously sanctioned so that these vessels can trade under recognized ownership and only carry non-sanctioned oil.
Transitioning from the "Bad" Fleet to the "Good" Fleet
The U.S. Secretary of Energy stated, "We will move some of the ships from what I call the ‘bad fleet’ to the ‘good fleet.’" This move, according to Wright, does not mean a complete lifting of sanctions on Iranian or Russian oil, but refers to converting the ships into legal assets. He estimated that the global dark fleet consists of about 1,600 tankers and suggested that "dozens" or perhaps "hundreds" of tankers may eventually return to legal trade.
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Concerns About Safety and Ownership
The International Association of Independent Tanker Owners, INTERTANKO, has strongly opposed this plan, warning that the legalization of a ship does not automatically resolve its conditions, ownership, or insurance. The association stated: "If additional tanker capacity is needed, policy should be directed towards quality transportation and compliance." These concerns include a lack of transparency in insurance arrangements, weak oversight, and incomplete inspection histories that could pose risks to crews, the environment, and coastal states.
Market analysts are also skeptical about whether this initiative can significantly reduce transportation costs. Kpler estimates that only 24 of about 160 OFAC-sanctioned VLCC tankers may return to mainstream trade. The company also noted that the risks of war in the Gulf, not just the number of ships, are the main driver of rising transportation costs, and easing sanctions could undermine geopolitical influence without providing real relief.
Braemar considers the potential increase in the number of usable ships to be even less than 19 VLCCs when vessels associated with Iranian and European sanctions are excluded. The company emphasized that any lasting impact depends on oil flows in Hormuz and the duration of U.S. verification arrangements.
Arrow's research has shown that a maximum of 22 tankers of all sizes qualify for this process, including 14 VLCCs, with none in the suezmax or aframax sectors. Arrow also believes that the risk of rising transportation costs persists, and a strong market may continue until the first quarter of 2027.
Meanwhile, BRS has identified 148 deep-sea tankers under U.S. sanctions, which make up only 2.5% of the global deep-sea fleet. Only 14 of these tankers appear to have been idle for more than three months. Most of the remaining ones are currently operating in gray trades, while restrictions from the UK and the EU may hinder access to necessary insurance and maritime services.
BRS believes that the U.S. initiative is unlikely to have a significant immediate impact on transportation costs, as most potentially eligible tankers are currently in operation, and fundamental restrictions on tanker movements in Hormuz remain unresolved.
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