Due to military conflicts with Ukraine, Russia has reduced its natural gas production forecast to the lowest level in the past 17 years. According to reports, Russia's natural gas production this year will reach 683 billion and 100 million cubic meters, which is 5 billion and 300 million cubic meters less than previous estimates. Furthermore, this figure is still higher than the 662 billion and 700 million cubic meters produced in 2025.
Impact on Gas Exports
The Kremlin has pointed out this month that Europe is harming itself by purchasing expensive gas from the spot market instead of opting for cheaper Russian sources. Moscow has also stated that it is ready to resume gas supplies to Europe, including through the Nord Stream underwater pipelines, one of which remains intact after the explosions in September 2022.
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Changes in LNG Exports
It is expected that Russia's maritime LNG exports will increase from 30 million and 300 thousand tons in 2025 to 35 million tons this year. However, this figure is still 5 million and 300 thousand tons less than previous forecasts. According to government documents, the trend of increasing LNG exports will continue in the coming years, but at a slower pace than previously predicted.
Calculations show that Russia's gas exports to Europe have decreased by 44% to 18 billion cubic meters last year due to the blockage of transit routes through Ukraine, marking the lowest level since the mid-1970s. In 2018 and 2019, Russia's gas exports via pipelines to Europe reached their highest level, approximately 180 billion cubic meters per year.
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