Russian crude oil exports reached 3.71 million barrels per day in the four weeks ending September 27, the highest level since early August 2023. This increase comes as oil prices have approached their highest since the start of the Ukraine war in 2022. Nevertheless, the Kremlin's ban on diesel sales abroad has negatively affected the profits from these exports.
Increase in Prices and Crude Oil Exports
In the four weeks ending September 27, the average prices of key Russian crudes, including Urals and ESPO, reached their highest level in over three months. This price increase has occurred due to ongoing disruptions in Saudi Arabia's oil exports caused by the maintenance of a key oil pipeline. During this period, the total value of Russian exports reached $2.39 billion per week, up from $2.1 billion in the previous week.
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Impact of Diesel Sales Ban and Market Conditions
While Russia has increased its crude oil export forecast for 2026, forecasts for refined product exports have been reduced by 500,000 barrels per day. This decrease is due to Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries and the ban on diesel sales abroad, which had previously averaged 1 million barrels per day. This ban is likely to continue until the end of October.
In the week ending September 27, about 37 tankers loaded approximately 27.9 million barrels of Russian crude oil. This figure shows an increase compared to the previous week, which had 24.99 million barrels with 32 vessels. Additionally, loading operations at the port of Novorossiysk have improved, although some tankers are spending more time than usual at the port's docks.
Currently, China and India are the largest buyers of Russian crude oil, with exports to these countries reaching 3.61 million barrels per day in the four weeks ending September 27. Meanwhile, exports to Russian customers in the Mediterranean region have dropped to their lowest level since the start of the Ukraine war, falling to about 100,000 barrels per day.
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