Persian Gulf crude oil exports exceeded 14 million barrels per day last week, surpassing 14 million barrels per day for the first time since the start of the Iran war on February 28. This significant jump indicates a 210 percent increase compared to the low of about 4.5 million barrels per day in March.
Increase in Crude Oil Exports
The four-week average of Persian Gulf crude oil exports has now reached about 14 million barrels per day, the highest level in the past six months. Despite this increase, Persian Gulf crude oil exports remain about 20 percent lower than pre-war levels and have returned to about 80 percent of the usual amount before the onset of hostilities.
Read more: Increase in Oil Exports from the Middle East Amid Iran Sanctions
Return of Tankers to the Strait of Hormuz
The increase in oil flow has occurred as shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz has improved, and with the increased military presence of the United States, a shipping route has been established along the coast of Oman. This route has allowed tankers and oil transport convoys to resume passage through the Strait of Hormuz, reviving part of the oil export flow in the region that was severely disrupted in the early months of the war.
The increase in crude oil exports indicates that, with a minimum level of security in shipping routes, the oil market can rapidly recover a portion of its lost supply. However, the situation in the petroleum products market remains different from that of crude oil.
Shipments of products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel are still about 50 percent of pre-war levels. One reason for this situation is the higher cost of transporting petroleum products compared to crude oil. On the other hand, some refineries in the Persian Gulf region that were damaged in the early stages of the war have not yet fully returned to production.
Recent developments indicate that the return of crude oil to the market does not necessarily mean that the petroleum products crisis is resolved. While Persian Gulf oil exports have reached about 80 percent of pre-war levels, the flow of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel is only about 50 percent of pre-war levels.
Read more: Increase in LNG Shipments from the Strait of Hormuz Following Supply Tension Reduction · Persian Gulf Oil Exports Reached Pre-War Levels in September
