New research from Ursa Shipbrokers shows that global demand for dry cargo in the first half of 2026 has reached 16.31 trillion ton-miles, which is a 6.7 percent increase compared to the same period last year, and this is considered the highest level in the last decade.
Demand Growth and Cargo Volume
The volume of cargo has relatively increased by only 3.2 percent, indicating that each ton of cargo has traveled an average of 3.4 percent further. Meanwhile, the active fleet has only expanded by 3.2 percent, leading to demand for transportation outpacing the growth in ship supply. Ursa has described this situation as a supportive backdrop for freight rates and second-hand values.
Read more: GAO Report on Maritime Fire Challenges and U.S. Coast Guard Efforts
Geographical Changes in Trade
Changes in the geography of trade have also become increasingly significant. Guinea's iron ore exports from January to August have reached 11.81 million tons, which is more than the total net increase in global iron ore trade during this period. Additionally, voyages from Guinea to China take approximately 11,254 nautical miles, which is roughly equivalent to the route from Brazil to China.
Bauxite exports have also had a greater impact. Recent data from Ursa shows that Guinea's exports have increased by nearly 20 percent this year, and the ongoing development of Simandou is also contributing to the increase in long-term trades.
Strengthening trade in other commodities is also observed. A report from Banchero Costa indicates that global soybean loadings from January to August have increased by 6.4 percent compared to last year, and China's imports have also grown by 4 percent. U.S. soybean exports have risen by nearly 31 percent, which may help employ more Panamax ships.
Positive Price Signals in the Market
This growth strength is visible across all classes of ships. Capesize earnings last week were above $52,000 per day, with Panamax ships increasing by 6.9 percent, Supramaxes by 1.1 percent, and Handysize by 2.3 percent. Additionally, asset markets are also confirming positive transportation signals. VesselsValue reports that one-year rates for Capesize ships in September reached the highest level in over a decade, and the value of 20-year-old Capesize ships has increased by about 7.9 percent in a month.
Read more: UCL Energy Institute Report: The Maritime Transport Industry is Falling Behind Carbon Emission Goals for 2030 · Omid Shakri: Supplying Petrochemical Feedstock Will Be More Difficult This Winter
