The Commander of the UK Border Security Unit, Major General Duncan Capps, warned on October 21 during a session of the Home Affairs Committee in the House of Commons that the occurrence of a humanitarian disaster in the English Channel is only a matter of time, and the likelihood of it happening increases in the winter season as maritime conditions worsen.
New Trafficker Tactics
Major General Capps' concerns stem from new tactics employed by smuggling gangs to organize the passage of illegal migrants. In recent months, traffickers have been using larger inflatable boats and have chosen longer crossing routes designed to reduce the risk of detection by the French National Gendarmerie.
Previously, the usual crossing was between Dunkirk and Dover, which is about 25 nautical miles apart, with around 60 migrants in each boat. However, traffickers now accommodate over 200 migrants in the boats and have changed the crossing route to between the Normandy coast and the southern coast of England, with a distance of over 80 nautical miles. For example, one of these boats was identified with 230 migrants on board.
Weather Condition Dangers
Traffickers on shorter routes were able to predict when conditions would be suitable for crossing. However, on longer routes, predicting timing has become more difficult for both trafficker supervisors and national weather forecasters. Bad weather can quickly capsize inflatable boats that are designed for short distances and calm waters. These boats are dangerously overloaded, and migrants usually wear warm clothing and are unable to swim.
Even if they are lucky enough to have life jackets, these jackets are usually of poor quality and may only float for a few minutes in emergencies. These boats often include vulnerable women, children, and infants who have no hope of survival if they fall into the water in winter.
The French National Gendarmerie typically monitors inflatable boats in the channel and believes that attempting to identify them right near the shores is more dangerous than allowing them to cross these perilous waters. Moreover, actions taken by the National Gendarmerie while migrants are still on the shores and attempting to board have only encouraged traffickers to find alternative shores for their operations.
Currently, there is a backlog of about 3,800 migrants in the camps of the Dunkirk and Calais areas, which is nearly double the similar backlog from last year.
