Crude oil exports from the Middle Eastern Gulf region, excluding Iran, have returned to pre-war levels in September. This recovery has occurred following changes in regional export routes and despite attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
Increase in Exports
According to published data, from September 1 to 28, at least 16.5 million barrels per day have exited the region, which is equivalent to the pre-war average, and this figure is 10.5 million barrels per day more than the monthly average in March. However, now 40% of these exports do not pass through the Strait of Hormuz, whereas before the war this share was only 17%.
Read more: Saudi Arabia Reduces Crude Oil Prices for Asia
Alternative Routes and Market Status
The pipelines of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates serve as the main alternative routes for oil exports. Additionally, a significant portion of the crude oil passing through the Strait is transferred to other tankers in international waters. The export statistics include crude oil and condensates, and shipments through the Red Sea are also accounted for. Before the conflict, about one-fifth of the world's oil supply passed through this strait.
Oil prices remain significantly higher than pre-war levels. Brent crude futures for delivery in December traded at $102.25 per barrel, while the U.S. benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, was priced at $90.50 per barrel. While the price of Brent futures before the war was around $72, disruptions in the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz have created a wave of shock in the global economy, prompting countries to seek alternative routes.
Iran still claims control over this waterway, and ships moving without its permission are at risk of attack. However, more vessels are successfully passing through, and alternative routes are operating at maximum capacity. Kepler analyst Amna Baker stated that the East-to-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia was halted following attacks from Iraqi territory on September 11 and resumed operations on September 22.
While the seven main members of the OPEC+ coalition are striving to maintain their production targets for November, the improvement in oil exports indicates significant changes in the global energy market.
Read more: Iraq Changes Its Oil Strategy by Organizing Tankers to Transport Oil Out of the Strait of Hormuz · Middle East Oil Exports Exceed Pre-War Levels in Iran
