Energy costs in winter 2026 are expected to vary due to conflicting energy price trends among fuels and regional differences in forecasted temperatures. In particular, the decrease in natural gas and propane prices may lead to lower costs for half of the households in the United States that use these fuels.
Increased Costs for Households Heating with Oil
In contrast, households using electricity and heating oil will see increased costs. It is predicted that costs for households using heating oil, especially in the Northeast United States, will rise by 21 percent compared to last winter. This increase is due to rising global prices of distillate fuels, particularly heating oil. The average price of heating oil this winter is expected to be 34 percent higher than last winter.
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Temperature Changes and Their Impact on Energy Consumption
Forecasts indicate that national average temperatures will be similar to last winter, but temperatures in the Northeast United States are expected to be warmer and cooler in the West. While moderate and southern temperatures are predicted to be similar to last year, households heated with electricity are likely to face a 4 percent increase in their electricity bills. Overall, energy costs are expected to decrease by an average of 9 percent for households heated with natural gas and 3 percent for households heated with propane.
Global production of distillate fuels, which includes heating oil production, has decreased due to reduced global refining activities. This production decline has led to increased international prices and higher demand for distillate fuel exports from the United States. In the first seven months of 2026, U.S. distillate fuel exports increased by 20 percent compared to last year, with a significant portion of this increase sent to Europe.
With rising import costs and higher demand for U.S. exports, U.S. distillate fuel reserves are at a low level heading into winter. Inventories are expected to be about 11 percent lower than the five-year average in the fourth quarter of 2026.
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