Crude oil inflows to global refineries in the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26) decreased by 4.8 million barrels per day (b/d), equivalent to 6 percent. This decline occurred following the onset of conflicts in late February in the Middle East. In the wake of this decrease, inflows increased by 1.8 million barrels per day in the third quarter (3Q26), particularly in regional refineries that adapted to new trade flows.
Impact of Conflicts on Crude Oil Inflows
Crude oil inflows to refineries typically increase in the second and third quarters of the year as refineries complete scheduled maintenance and prepare for the seasonal peak demand for refined products, including gasoline and jet fuel. In the second quarter of 2025, global crude oil inflows increased by 0.3 million barrels per day and then rose by another 2 million barrels per day in the third quarter.
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Impact on High Refining Capacity Countries
Countries with the highest refining capacity in the world include the United States, China, Russia, and India. Refining in countries directly affected by the reduction of crude oil supply due to conflicts in the Strait of Hormuz experienced the most significant declines. Crude oil inflows in China decreased by 2.1 million barrels per day in 2Q26 and by 0.8 million barrels per day in 3Q26. Crude oil inflows in India, South Korea, and Japan also collectively decreased by over 1.0 million barrels per day in 2Q26 and then increased by 0.8 million barrels per day in 3Q26.
As a result of increased attacks on Russian oil infrastructure during the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, crude oil inflows in Russia decreased by 0.6 million barrels per day in 2Q26 and by another 0.8 million barrels per day in 3Q26. Russia is one of the main fuel exporters, particularly diesel fuel, so the reduction in exports impacted global diesel markets that were already tight due to previous geopolitical developments.
Despite the decrease in inflows in some countries during the second and third quarters of 2026, crude oil inflows in the United States and some other regions that managed to secure alternative supplies increased. Crude oil inflows in the United States rose by 0.5 million barrels per day in 2Q26 and by another 0.5 million barrels per day in 3Q26.
Overall, global crude oil inflows improved by 1.8 million barrels per day in 3Q26, as more flows from the Strait of Hormuz, alternative routes, and ship-to-ship transfers brought more crude oil from the Middle East to the global market. However, crude oil inflows in 3Q26 were still on average about 5 percent lower than the same period in 2025.
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