The reduction of the Islamic Republic's position in controlling the Strait of Hormuz comes as the U.S. Navy and Gulf oil producers have been more successful in countering attacks from Tehran. These changes have allowed more tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and Middle Eastern crude oil exports this month have reached their highest level since the war began last March.
Increase in Exports and Control of the Strait of Hormuz
According to data from oil tracking companies, the volume of oil shipments passing through Hormuz has reached nearly 80% of the region's oil flow before the war. This month, crude oil exports from major Middle Eastern producers, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates, have increased to nearly 13 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has begun transferring crude oil through its damaged East-West pipeline and loading it onto tankers in the Red Sea.
Read more: Delivery of Oil Shipment on the Sanctions Route to China
Economic Challenges of the Islamic Republic and Their Consequences
Since the re-establishment of the U.S. maritime blockade in July, the Islamic Republic has been unable to pass Iranian crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Estimates suggest that Iran's oil reserves may run out by mid-October, which could cut off one of Iran's vital sources of income. This development weakens Tehran's ability to leverage global energy supply through hostage-taking and eliminates one of Iran's most powerful tools in negotiations to end the conflict.
With the reduction of the Islamic Republic's oil revenues and the increase of alternative routes by neighboring countries, Tehran may consider resuming attacks as its best remaining tool for exerting pressure. Experts warn that this situation could lead to new attacks on energy infrastructure in the Gulf. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, active in the Strait of Hormuz, may change its tactics and increase attacks on ports and refineries.
Currently, the volume of Iranian crude oil that is already on ships outside the blockade has decreased to about 15 million barrels, and these shipments are expected to run out by early or mid-October. Under these circumstances, Iran's attacks on ships in Hormuz seem to have decreased, but the risk of new conflicts remains.
Read more: Bernhard Schulte Shipping Company Acquires 50% of OffshoreCrew Shares · Confirmation of a Tanker Collision in the Strait of Hormuz by UKMTO
