Diego Garcia Air Base has witnessed the arrival of a large number of U.S. support aircraft as tensions in the region rise. As of October 2, the base was nearly empty of aircraft, but by October 24, at least 10 aircraft were observed there, including a heavy transport C-5, a VIP C-40, at least two P-8 maritime patrol aircraft, and at least four KC-135 refueling aircraft.
Security Status of the Base
In the past, when tensions escalated, Diego Garcia Base was typically protected by F-16 fighter jets. However, currently, none of these fighters are seen at the base. Additionally, long-range bombers B-2 or B-52 are also not present at this base. The warships present in the lagoon are part of the permanent MPSRON-2 naval task force.
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Increased Risks and Consequences
In the past 12 months, the range of drones and missiles of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran has increased, and their targeting accuracy has significantly improved. These advancements have been achieved through near-real-time imagery intelligence provided to Iran by Russia and China. However, there is still no evidence of Iran's capability to effectively target Diego Garcia. The last attempt to target this base involved the launch of two Khorramshahr-4 medium-range ballistic missiles on March 20, which failed.
The missile fired at the target significantly missed, and the other missile was immediately intercepted by an SM-3 system launched from an American warship. Nevertheless, the risk of Iran succeeding in a renewed attempt to target Diego Garcia is increasing due to their ability to enhance the performance of their missiles and drones. If the British government grants permission for offensive operations from Diego Garcia, it is likely that offensive assets will be deployed covertly and securely.
Given the increasing threats, an attack from aircraft stationed at more distant locations is likely, and Diego Garcia will be used as a support base and possibly as a return base.
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