Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, has turned to using the Arctic trade route that was utilized during World War II for the first time. This move is due to trade restrictions in the Black Sea and the ongoing war with Ukraine, which has halted agricultural trade in the region.
Grain trade status in the Black Sea
Grain trade in the Black Sea has been suspended since the beginning of the new grain marketing season in July, due to reciprocal attacks between Russia and Ukraine on each other's ports and ships. To maintain its main customers in the Middle East and Asia, Russia has attempted to redirect its exports to Baltic Sea ports and subsidize rail transport from the fertile southern agricultural regions.
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Loading the first grain shipment at the port of Murmansk
In a recent announcement, the commercial port of Murmansk has stated that the first shipment of 3,400 metric tons of grain from "key agricultural areas" is being loaded onto a ship. The port of Murmansk, located near the border with Norway and approximately 2,000 kilometers (1,240 miles) north of Moscow, is accessible from neutral waters. During World War II, Allied convoys used this port to deliver goods to the Soviet Union.
According to transport data and a market source, about 28,000 tons of wheat will be loaded onto a ship at the port of Murmansk destined for the port of Casablanca in Morocco. In September, Baltic Sea ports loaded about 1.2 million tons of grain, accounting for over 60 percent of total maritime grain exports.
Security and political challenges
Some Kremlin officials have warned of the risks posed by potential hostile actions from NATO member countries in the region. All countries with access to the Baltic Sea, except for Russia, are NATO members. Russia's relations with Europe have significantly deteriorated in recent months, with the Kremlin accusing European countries of direct military intervention in this conflict.
Turkey, one of the grain importers from Russia, has led efforts to introduce a ceasefire and resume transport in the Black Sea, but Russia has stated that it is no longer interested in a new Black Sea grain agreement. The Black Sea grain agreement, signed in July 2022 to allow safe exports of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea, was terminated by Russia in 2023, which complained about existing obstacles to its exports.
Russia expects that transit shipments along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) will more than double by 2026, indicating a significant increase in Arctic shipping despite Western sanctions, although volumes have yet to approach Moscow's main targets for this route.
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