Property construction starts in China have reached their lowest level since 2002. This concerning situation, which has serious implications for the iron and coking coal markets, has been highlighted by a 74 percent decline in construction activities since 2019. According to published statistics, construction starts last year fell to 588 million square meters, indicating a severe reduction in this sector.
Continued Decline in Construction Activities
In the first nine months of 2026, the total new construction starts reached 340 million square meters, showing a 25 percent decline compared to the same period last year and nearly 80 percent less than the same period in 2019. Additionally, the infrastructure space under construction has decreased by 32 percent since 2021, and project completions have dropped by approximately 40 percent.
Read more: Bank of Commerce Plays a Role in Energy Imbalance Management with New Technologies
Implications for Raw Material Markets
This sharp decline in construction starts poses a serious threat to the demand for steel in China, which has traditionally relied on construction projects. However, while domestic demand for iron and coking coal is decreasing, China's iron imports have increased by 4.1 percent in the first nine months of 2026. This increase indicates a greater reliance on foreign supply and changing trade patterns.
At the recent "CEO Maritime Forum" in Monaco, John Mikhail Radziwill, President of CTM, pointed out that dry markets are moving towards a "generational rally." In this context, Milna Pappas from Star Bulk emphasized the growing importance of Guinea's bauxite exports and Simandou iron ore production in creating longer voyages. These changes could be seen as a story of ton-miles and indicate the beginning of a new trend in international trade.
Despite this construction decline in China, longer trade routes and changes in mineral supply chains could help sustain transportation markets. The fundamental question arises whether these factors can continuously prevent a construction recession in China and influence global markets.
Read more: Gold Price Returns to $3,900 Channel on Monday, November 1, 2026 · Global Shipbuilding Orders Break 2008 Record
