Wheat exports from the Black Sea in September 2023 reached 1.6 million tons, representing a 77.8% decrease compared to 7.3 million tons in the same month last year. This decline occurred at a time when September is typically one of the busiest months for wheat exports.
Reasons for the Decline in Exports
New vessel tracking data collected by AXSMarine indicates that wheat loading in the Black Sea in September decreased by 45.6% compared to August, reaching the lowest level for September since 2017. Increased attacks on ships and port infrastructure in the region, particularly attacks on commercial vessels and ports, have impacted export levels.
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Maritime Attacks and Their Impact on Exports
Earlier this week, a general cargo ship named “Royad Mamedov,” which was transporting corn from the port of Izmail, Ukraine, to Italy, sank after a drone attack in Romania's exclusive economic zone, resulting in the loss of two sailors' lives. A day later, two other commercial vessels were targeted in Bulgaria's exclusive economic zone. The ship “Alpha Watan,” flying the Togolese flag, sank, and the ship “Able,” flying the Palauan flag and carrying wheat, caught fire.
Maritime security consultancy Ambrey has predicted that Russian forces likely carried out these attacks, although Bulgarian officials have not yet officially confirmed responsibility for them. These attacks have raised concerns about the safety of alternative export routes.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture has announced that the country exported only 2.4 million tons of agricultural products in September, equivalent to 46% of its export capacity. The Danube port accounted for 1.3 million tons, or 54% of total exports.
Challenges of Export Routes
Despite increased traffic on alternative routes, logistical issues persist, particularly in the Danube River corridor. Low water levels and rising fuel prices have increased transportation costs for wheat on this route, forcing cargoes to carry smaller shipments.
At the same time, Russia has redirected a significant volume of wheat towards the Baltic. Russian wheat exports through the Baltic reached a record 1.4 million tons in September, accounting for about 60% of the country's total wheat exports. However, this increase has not prevented an overall decline in Russian wheat exports of more than 40% compared to last year.
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