Russian crude oil exports reached their lowest level in over a month, declining to 3.55 million barrels per day in the four weeks ending October 25, 2023. This comes as activities at the Primorsk port, one of the country's main ports in the Baltic region, have significantly improved.
Export Decline and Transportation Improvement
According to tanker data, Russian oil exports during this period decreased by 30,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. However, in the week ending October 25, 12 tankers departed from the Primorsk port, which is notable compared to the previous week when only four tankers had departed. Last week, there was a three-day interruption in the arrival and departure of tankers, likely related to port or pipeline repairs.
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Given the war in Russia against Ukraine, which has impacted global fuel and food supply, oil prices have reached their highest levels since the beginning of this war. Brent crude oil prices rose above $120 per barrel at the start of the war. In the week ending October 25, 37 tankers loaded 26.93 million barrels of Russian crude oil, indicating a significant increase compared to the previous week.
War Impacts and Market Changes
The war in Ukraine has had deeper impacts on global fuel supply and, in turn, affected prices in the global market. After a period of silence in Kyiv's attacks on Russian refineries, Moscow has been able to increase its oil processing capacity. However, if this pause in attacks continues, the amount of Russian crude oil available for export may decrease in the coming weeks.
Meanwhile, buyers in India may turn to less Russian crude oil due to high transportation costs and cheaper options from the Gulf. Nevertheless, China and India remain the largest buyers of Russian crude oil, although determining the final destination of shipments is usually not possible until mid-journey.
Overall, the volume of Russian crude oil exports last week reached 3.85 million barrels per day, the highest level in the past month. This increase occurred as global oil prices rose due to high demand and a decrease in Urals oil prices.
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