Russia can quickly resume up to 80% of its grain export capacity in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov if diplomatic efforts to halt counterattacks against Ukraine lead to a ceasefire. These results are based on an analysis of industrial data and the less-than-favorable conditions of several grain ports in the region.
Condition of Russian grain ports
According to this analysis, three ports that make up about 20% of Russia's grain export infrastructure in this area have been severely damaged and may take months to repair. Before these attacks occurred, this route managed up to 70% of Russia's grain exports.
Read more: Nasrallah Pezeshkianfar: Reducing gas consumption is essential to overcome winter imbalances
Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter, and disruptions in grain transportation have led to rising global prices and renewed concerns about food security related to the war in Ukraine. Analyses indicate that three out of nine major ports in this region have been seriously damaged due to Ukrainian attacks, affecting grain loading capacity in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.
Damages and repair timelines
One of Russia's largest grain ports, NKHP in Novorossiysk, was severely damaged in an attack on August 12. This port has an annual capacity of 7.1 million tons, and repairs may take up to six months. According to a local source, the conveyor belt at this port has been completely destroyed, and employees have been sent on leave for six months.
Other damaged ports include ZTKT in the port of Temryuk and another port in Taganrog in the Sea of Azov, where operations have been halted. The combined annual capacity of these two ports is 6.7 million tons, and it is still unclear when they can resume operations.
Analyses indicate that ports with a combined capacity of about 53 million tons are currently inactive due to security risks but could soon resume operations. The total capacity of grain ports in this region is about 67 million tons. Currently, Russia is seeking alternative export routes and is also using standard equipment to load fertilizers to soon export its first grain shipment from southern Russia.
Read more: Significant reduction in fuel smuggling in Hormozgan province following judicial actions · Washington is seizing 4 million barrels of Iranian oil from the Tiffany and Majestic X tankers
