Oil exports from the Persian Gulf, excluding Iran, reached 81% of pre-war levels in September 2023. The data indicates that despite attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure and an escalation of Iranian attacks on maritime transport, oil exports from these countries have improved.
Increase in Oil Exports
Crude oil, gas condensates, and refined fuels including LPG averaged 19.2 million barrels per day (bpd) from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates. This is while the average exports in the year before the onset of the Iran war, which began on February 28, 2023, were about 23.6 million barrels per day.
According to Kpler data, total oil exports in September reached 18.6 million barrels per day. In this month, crude oil and gas condensate exports returned to 91% of pre-war levels, meaning 16.3 million barrels per day, but refined fuel exports, including LPG, remained at 60% of pre-war levels.
Consequences of Sanctions and Maritime Insecurity
The decline in refined fuel exports has exacerbated the global diesel and jet fuel shortages and led to price increases in several markets. The Persian Gulf, as a key supplier of these fuels, has made regional changes very significant for global consumers.
Analysts believe that daily oil export flows have become much more volatile compared to pre-war levels, raising the question of whether current levels can be maintained. In September, Saudi Arabia experienced a significant upward trend with exports increasing to 6.6 million barrels per day, while the country's exports in August were 2.4 million barrels per day.
Drone attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure led the country to shut down the East-West pipeline last month, temporarily halting oil loading at the Yanbu port located on the Red Sea. However, Saudi Arabia's recovery has fully compensated for the decline in exports from other countries and ensured net export growth for the region.
Kpler data shows that combined crude oil and gas condensate exports from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, and Iran in September increased to about 14.7 million barrels per day, which is significant compared to 10.8 million barrels per day in August. This increase in exports occurred while Iran's exports had dropped to zero, and exports from Kuwait and Qatar had also decreased.
