Mahyar Ramazankhani emphasized the necessity of controlling the exchange rate below 230,000 tomans and examined the inflation increase caused by sanctions and the decline in oil sales. He said: "The inflationary effect of the increase in the exchange rate is undeniable" and elaborated on the reasons for this increase.
Reasons for the Increase in the Exchange Rate
Ramazankhani identified several factors influencing the increase in the price of currency. He pointed to the intensification of sanctions, maritime blockade, and the loss of the UAE channel, adding: "These three factors have simultaneously exerted pressures on the government and created problems in the allocation and provision of currency."
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He also referred to the decline in oil sales, stating: "Oil sales continue to decrease, making currency provision more difficult." This macroeconomic analyst criticized the inefficiency of the currency rate determination formula in the country and compared the exchange rate based on the inflation differential between Iran and the United States.
Economic Predictions and Future Challenges
Ramazankhani said: "If the dollar price were to be determined solely based on this formula today, the dollar rate should be around 270,000 tomans." He also warned about the increasing need for liquidity in the second half of the year, adding: "As we approach the end of the year, both the public and private sectors will have a greater need for liquidity, and costs traditionally rise."
He also noted that if we cannot control the situation by November, which is the time of the U.S. elections, triple-digit inflation will be inevitable. Ramazankhani predicted that if the current trend continues, each dollar will reach around 285,000 tomans.
He also mentioned the potential effects of an agreement on the currency market, saying: "If an agreement is reached, we can return to below 200,000 tomans again." However, he warned that this decrease might occur artificially and under the influence of expected and psychological shocks.
This macroeconomic analyst further explained that the Central Bank must strive to keep the exchange rate within the channel below 230,000 tomans. He warned against a severe and artificial decrease in the exchange rate, stating: "The Central Bank's intervention is also in conflict with the commercial realities of the country. If we can lower the exchange rate in a 'gasoline-like' manner, the speed of capital outflow from the country will increase."
In conclusion, Ramazankhani emphasized that intervention in the currency market is essential, but the extent of it depends on the resources and capabilities of the Central Bank.
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