Kpler, a commodity information company, announced a jump in daily oil exports from Gulf Arab countries to "at least" 16.5 million barrels in September. This export level, excluding Iranian oil, matches the pre-Middle East war levels.
Developments in Oil Transport Routes
Kpler's data on tracking oil tankers shows that maritime oil exports from Arab countries in the region have fully revived, and only the transport routes have changed. Before the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz by the Islamic Republic, 17 percent of oil from Arab countries in the region passed through alternative routes to the Strait of Hormuz, but this figure has increased to 40 percent this month due to greater use of alternative pipelines by the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
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Status of Iranian Oil Exports
Kpler did not specify whether the daily export of one million barrels of oil from Iraq via land to the Syrian port of Baniyas and the resumption of oil exports from the Kurdistan region through Turkey were included in its calculations. Iranian oil exports have been completely halted since mid-July due to the U.S. maritime blockade.
Homayoun Falakshahi, a senior analyst at Kpler, previously referred to the status of Iranian oil exports, stating that less than 15 million barrels of Iranian oil remain outside the U.S. blockade and are likely all sold, just waiting for delivery to Chinese customers. This indicates that Iran not only has no new oil transit but also that its floating oil reserves outside the blockade lines have been depleted.
Chinese refineries typically delay payments for oil deliveries from Iran by two to three months, and it is expected that Iran's oil export revenues will reach zero in the next two months.
According to estimates by the Central Bank, the value of Iran's oil and petroleum product exports - at FOB Persian Gulf prices - was $57.4 billion last year, accounting for 55 percent of the country's total exports. However, the Islamic Republic has not yet published statistics on oil revenue status for the current year.
The Statistical Center of Iran reported that the added value of the oil and gas extraction sector in the spring of this year decreased by about 26.4 percent compared to the same season last year. The share of this sector in Iran's gross domestic product has decreased to 21 percent.
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