Iran's oil exports in September have reached zero, while the oil exports of Gulf countries, except for Iran, have risen to over 81% of pre-war levels. This situation is due to the U.S. maritime blockade on Iranian tankers.
Gulf Oil Export Status
According to data from Vortexa, in September, the flow of crude oil, condensates, and refined products from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, Iraq, and the UAE averaged 19.2 million barrels per day. This figure represents a significant increase in oil exports from Gulf countries compared to the average of 23.6 million barrels in the year before the war began on February 28.
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Data from Kpler shows that total oil exports in September amounted to 18.6 million barrels per day. Additionally, Gulf producers have employed methods referred to as "dark movements" to turn off tanker tracking systems to evade detection and monitoring of sanctions.
Consequences of the Decline in Iran's Oil Exports
Exports of refined products have also remained at 60% of previous levels. This drop in exports has exacerbated the global shortage of diesel and jet fuel, driving up prices in global markets. Claire Youngman, an analyst at Vortexa, stated that "daily flows are much more volatile than before the war, so the key question is whether recent levels can be sustained."
Saudi Arabia, as the main driver of the return of exports in recent months, has increased its exports from August to September to 6.6 million barrels per day. This increase in exports comes at a time when drone attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure have forced the country to close the East-West pipeline and temporarily halt oil loading at the Yanbu port.
While Iran's exports have reached zero, the exports of other countries such as the UAE and Iraq have increased during this period. These changes in Gulf oil exports, especially as exports from Kuwait and Qatar have also faced declines, indicate profound shifts in the energy market and the impacts of sanctions on Iran.
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