The fleet of Russian-flagged tankers has significantly increased this year. According to new data, this fleet has grown by 36% from 280 vessels to 382.
Reasons for the Increase in Russian Tanker Fleet
Increasing Western sanctions against Russian energy exports and reduced access to valid and invalid registrations have positioned Russian tankers as the ultimate flag choice. Invalid registrations and sanction evasion previously assisted vessels, but these avenues are gradually diminishing.
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Global Changes
According to Clarksons Research data, the fleet under the Russian flag has increased by 38.2% as of September 1 and is now recognized as the sixteenth largest flag in the world. This trend reflects the evolution of the shadow fleet business model, where sanctioned vessels have turned to the Russian flag under Western pressures.
Windward predicted in February that increased pressure on flagless vessels would lead to a significant wave of flag changes towards Russia. This flag change restores legality and some protections under international maritime law for the vessels.
Since July, Windward has identified over 213 sanctioned tankers operating under the Russian flag, which accounts for more than one-fifth of the total 1,000 sanctioned Western tankers.
With the reduction of previous havens for the shadow fleet, this trend has accelerated. According to CREA, Barbados and Palau have eliminated all sanctioned shadow vessels, and Panama has reduced its registrations of sanctioned shadow fleets by nearly two-thirds since May of last year. Additionally, Comoros and Gambia have faced significant losses of vessels following sanctions against registration operators.
The result of these developments is reduced concealment and potentially greater geopolitical complexities. A vessel with a fake flag may be challenged as flagless, while a sanctioned tanker publicly flying the Russian flag is recognized instead as a registered Russian vessel.
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