Oil exports from Gulf countries averaged 16.5 million barrels per day in September 2026, nearing pre-war levels. This comes as Iranian oil exports remain under pressure due to U.S. sanctions and are effectively absent from the international market.
Increase in Oil Exports and Its Impacts
Analyses indicate that oil exports from the Gulf, whether via tankers or pipelines, have significantly increased. According to Kpler, oil exports in September 2026 reached 98% of pre-war export volumes. This is due to the launch of a shuttle tanker system that transports crude oil from the perilous waters of the Strait of Hormuz and then transfers it to other vessels for shipment to global markets.
Read more: New Iranian Oil Shipment Faces Sanctions
Over 70% of the oil that passes through this strait undergoes STS (Ship-to-Ship) transfer at its end. This process has helped ensure the security and continuity of oil exports under critical conditions. Last week, Saudi Arabia's oil exports reached 6.4 million barrels per day, exceeding pre-war average export levels and playing a significant role in the overall increase in Gulf exports.
Economic Impacts and Existing Challenges
Despite the increase in oil exports, other key commodities such as LNG, urea, ammonia, sulfur, and refined products have yet to reach pre-war levels. These goods still face serious barriers to passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, fuel prices in the United States have reached new records, with the average retail price of diesel hitting $6.53 per gallon, a significant increase from $3.70 last year.
Multiple factors, such as Ukraine's attacks on Russian diesel exports and the security situation in the Strait of Hormuz, have impacted refinery capacities, and therefore, the increase in Gulf oil exports may not quickly lead to a reduction in price pressures in the fuel market.
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