A new report from the Global Center for Marine Carbon Reduction (GCMD) and the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) examines developments in the transition to marine fuels by 2050. This study, titled "Guide to Marine Fuel Transition," explores 12 fuel pathways and six types of engines, concluding that this transition will be primarily influenced by carbon pricing, hydrogen costs, access to raw materials, and owners' choices in the coming decade.
Analysis of Various Scenarios
According to the baseline scenario of this report, despite the IMO Tier-2 corrective unit penalty of $380 per ton of CO2 equivalent, conventional fuels will still dominate. It is predicted that by 2050, VLSFO and fossil LNG will still account for 40% of the fleet's energy consumption, while VLSFO combined with carbon capture on board will make up another 30%.
Read more: Janfada Campaign as a Driver of Scientific and Social Progress in Iran
The Impact of Carbon Pricing on New Fuels
The picture changes dramatically if the carbon penalty reaches $700 per ton by 2050. At this level, GCMD and BCG estimate that new fuels will gain broader competitiveness, constituting about 61% of marine energy consumption, while fossil fuels will drop to around 13%.
This study also shows that e-methanol and e-ammonia are economically much closer than they appear. Although ammonia has lower production costs, this advantage is largely offset by higher storage, transportation, and safety requirements. With a projected price of about $52 per GJ for both fuels by 2050, they could supply approximately 36% of the global fleet's energy demand.
The key takeaway from this report is that owners should consider diverse options and not concentrate everything on a single fuel. This conclusion aligns with work published by the Gas as a Marine Fuel Association, which has recently completed lifecycle assessments of LNG, ammonia, and methanol.
Read more: Control of Ship Operational Data Should Be in the Owner's Hands · Historic Resolution on Kashmir; India Voted Against Itself!
