The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) Council warned in a specialized report about the economic and legal consequences of the suspension of membership or potential withdrawal of Armenia from this organization. The council emphasized that Yerevan's decision to begin the process of integration with the European Union will expose the country to severe financial, energy, and trade shocks.
Economic Consequences of Withdrawal from Eurasia
According to experts from the four countries of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan, the 69% shock to the price of gas imports to Armenia is one of the most significant damages from leaving the Eurasian Union. Official estimates from the council indicate that the annual cost of gas imports to Armenia will rise by 69% to over $657.5 million. This increase in costs will immediately impact Armenia's economy, leading to a decrease in people's purchasing power and increased economic pressure.
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Cancellation of Trade Agreements and Its Consequences
The council's report also mentions the cancellation of the free trade agreement with Iran and several other countries, noting that with Armenia's withdrawal, its preferential and free trade agreements with Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Serbia, Vietnam, and Mongolia will automatically be annulled. This could directly impact Armenia's economic exchanges and trade balance, particularly during economic crises, placing the country in a vulnerable position.
The report also highlights extensive side effects such as increased rail transit tariffs, cancellation of the preferential tax system, and replacement with the tax systems of third countries, reimposition of strict sanitary and veterinary inspections on Armenian exports, and the return of the requirement for permits and quotas for Armenian citizens working in EAEU member countries. These changes could lead to reduced economic activities in Armenia and increased costs.
In conclusion, the drafters of this document emphasized that Armenia's separation from the Eurasian Economic Union will not only harm this country but will also not benefit other union members. Simultaneously joining disparate Western treaties and regional EAEU commitments presents unprecedented geopolitical and economic challenges for Yerevan.
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