Crude oil exports from the Middle East reached their highest level in the final days of September 2023, with volumes rising to approximately 19.5 to 22.5 million barrels per day. This increase in exports has occurred while attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and its surroundings continue.
Details of the Increase in Oil Exports
According to data from the shipping tracking institute "Kepler", the average daily crude oil exports in the last week of September reached 18.5 million barrels. This is while the average exports during the period from March 2025 to February, before the start of the war between the United States and Israel with the Islamic Republic, were about 18 million barrels per day. Including petroleum products, chemicals, and gas liquids, exports in the seven days leading up to September 30 increased to approximately 22.4 million barrels per day.
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Attacks on Commercial Vessels and Security Threats
The increase in exports is observed amid ongoing attacks on commercial vessels in the region. Reports indicate that Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, the Speaker of Parliament, has stated that the Strait of Hormuz will "not be opened" until the seven conditions of the Islamic Republic based on the Islamabad agreement are met. The shipping intelligence company "Marisec" reported on October 3 that at least seven recent maritime incidents in the area have been recorded. Among them, the large tanker "Kazma 3" was targeted by an unknown projectile and caught fire while passing through the Strait of Hormuz on October 1.
The British Maritime Trade Operations Agency has also reported at least one attack in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2. "Marisec" has also warned that commercial vessels in Hormuz face a military threat that is "more severe and increasingly unpredictable." In this context, the company noted that there is still no evidence that all recent incidents are due to the intentional targeting of specific vessels.
One scenario proposed by "Marisec" is that the forces of the Islamic Republic could launch missiles toward a predetermined area, and the missile guidance system would lock onto one of the vessels after detecting the radar of ships present in the area. In such a situation, merely the presence of a ship in the conflict zone could expose it to attack.
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