Iran's intermittent attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz have severely impacted the economic situation of both sides. According to reports, U.S. sanctions against Iran's oil exports have disrupted a significant part of the military financing of this country and have made its $300 billion economy highly vulnerable. Currently, only a small portion of the 2 million barrels of oil that used to exit the country before the war is being sold through land routes.
Economic Effects on the United States
On the other hand, the United States is also facing increased oil transportation costs through the Strait of Hormuz. Although the U.S. Central Command has stated that nearly all Iranian attacks in this region fail or are intercepted, this situation continues to drive up fuel prices and provoke political reactions within the United States. The midterm elections have also exacerbated this issue.
Iran does not need to increase the number of attacks to maintain oil prices; despite the fact that the volume of oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz has reached about 80% of pre-war levels, the risks associated with these attacks have significantly increased insurance costs. In early October, hiring a tanker in some parts of the world became more expensive than sending a rocket into space.
Analysis of Military Situation and Iran's Attacks
Experts say that even severe economic pain will not change Iran's ability to continue attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's missile reserves allow the country to continue producing anti-ship weapons. Meanwhile, U.S. airstrikes have severely reduced Iran's capacity to mass-produce these weapons.
In October, at least 28 reports of damage to ships in the Strait of Hormuz have been recorded, but Iran has not increased its number of attacks. Instead, more serious damages have led to an increase in the number of reported incidents. A quarter of the reports in the first two weeks of October were related to attacks on ship engine rooms, which could take them out of service.
Analysts believe that the United States must raise the economic cost of Iranian ship attacks to a level that becomes unbearable for the country. Currently, the tanker industry continues to transport oil from the Middle East, and it is unclear what kind of escalation is necessary to stop these activities. Passing through this waterway brings millions of dollars in revenue for tanker owners.
According to estimates from the International Maritime Organization, since the onset of the war in the region, 121 incidents have been recorded in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding areas, including 24 confirmed deaths of sailors. However, no ship has been damaged by sea mines while passing through this strait.
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