BIMCO, the International Shipping Organization, has examined the state of the container shipping market in 2027 in its latest report. The report emphasizes that although the market benefits from geopolitical disruptions and increased travel distances in 2026, the rapid fleet growth could turn this support into a supply problem next year.
Fleet Growth and Anticipated Supply Issues
According to BIMCO's report, the supply of ships is expected to grow by an average of 5 to 6 percent in 2027, while demand growth is forecasted to be only between 0.5 to 2.5 percent, assuming the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. If normal conditions return, demand growth is expected to increase to 2.5 to 4.5 percent.
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This imbalance in supply and demand growth could lead to market weakening, especially considering that the global container fleet has reached 34 million TEU. This increase is due to an additional 10 million TEU added in just the last five and a half years, and fleet capacity is expected to increase by 4.6 percent in 2026 and 9 percent in 2027.
Factors Affecting Demand and Economic Impacts
The container shipping market experienced a 5.1 percent growth in container volumes in the first seven months of 2026. This growth is primarily due to increased exports from East and Southeast Asia. However, demand for ships has risen due to increased volumes of main and regional voyages, while return volumes have remained stable.
Considering the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and regional disruptions, BIMCO has evaluated two scenarios for 2027. In the "Closed Strait of Hormuz" scenario, supply issues and high energy prices are expected to negatively impact global economic growth and container volume growth. Meanwhile, a return to normal conditions in the Strait of Hormuz could help increase demand, but supply issues will still persist in the market.
Another important variable is the Suez Canal, where some major shipping lines are gradually resuming services to this route. This return could lead to a decrease in demand for ships and ultimately affect the balance of supply and demand.
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