At the Maritime CEO Forum recently held in Monaco, analysts and shipowners examined the state of the maritime transport market for minerals. With the increase in mineral exports from West Africa, the demand for maritime transport has risen, and some shipowners predict that the market may move towards a historic rate increase.
Forecast of Rate Increases
John Michael Radziwill, CEO of CTM, stated at the conference that 2026 has exceeded expectations and geopolitical disruptions are supportive for the maritime transport markets. He added, "We are likely on the verge of a historic rate increase" and pointed out that the mineral transport sector has yet to reach the extraordinary revenues experienced in other transport sectors since 2021.
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New Demand for Large Ships
Milena Papas, commercial director of Star Bulk and president of Ocean Bulk Maritime, agreed with Radziwill and stated that she is even more optimistic about the future. She referred to the increase in bauxite exports from Guinea and the production of Simandou iron ore, both of which have led to increased demand for large ships. Papas noted that previous forecasts for Simandou exports of 45 million tons next year could now reach 65 million tons.
Concerns About Shipbuilding Capacity
Lars-Christian Svensen, CEO of Beren and Himalaya Shipping, pointed to structural changes in the market and added, "This is a ton-mile story, and you have only seen the beginning of it." He also reminded that effective earnings for large ships have increased to about $30,000 per day, while in previous years this figure was around $15,000.
Meanwhile, Cesar D'Amico, CEO of D'Amico Società di Navigazione, looked at the market situation more cautiously and warned that the principles of supply and demand in shipping can change rapidly. He recalled the market crash following the boom of 2004-2008.
Economic Impacts and Future of the Market
Papas also referred to the astonishing emergence of Henglai as a "case study" and said that this Chinese yard expects to deliver 90 ships this year and may increase production to 300 ships by 2030. She also warned that some newly established yards have asked potential customers to supply their own engines.
Finally, asset prices currently reflect market optimism. Papas mentioned the sale of Kamsarmax ships for $44 to $45 million and the resale of Capesize ships for over $90 million.
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