The Trump administration's claim that the Strait of Hormuz is open and oil flow from this route has increased comes at a time when on-the-ground realities indicate serious challenges in this area. Last week, the Trump administration released a series of coordinated statements asserting that oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz has approached pre-war levels. This claim was accompanied by images of tankers passing through as a sign of a return to normalcy.
Analysis of the Situation in the Strait of Hormuz
However, what is seen in the field and the energy market tells a different story. The Strait of Hormuz, as a strategic route, is no longer simply an open and normal passage for transit. Rather, this route is under the management and control of Iran, and passage through it is contingent upon conditions and the level of risk involved. Even with an increase in oil transit volumes, this situation cannot be interpreted as a complete freedom of navigation.
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Economic and Military Challenges in Transiting the Strait of Hormuz
An increase in oil transit volumes does not necessarily mean a reduction in the risk of attacks and insurance costs. The daily rental cost of a giant oil tanker carrying crude oil reached over one million dollars at the end of September, whereas such costs were much lower before the war. This increase in costs, along with the need for military support to transit the Strait of Hormuz, raises serious questions about the claim of safety and normalcy of this route.
In fact, if the Strait of Hormuz is truly open and normal, why have the costs of tanker passage increased so significantly? Why are shipping companies forced to pay higher costs to transit this route? And why has oil transfer operations required such a level of U.S. military presence and support? These questions indicate that the claim of U.S. victory in Hormuz faces serious challenges and that on-the-ground realities require more precise analysis.
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