The risk of renewed war between the United States and Iran has reached its highest level, and it is expected that this situation will continue in the coming weeks. These tensions could lead to actions from Israel, Iran, the United States, and even Gulf countries.
Political and Military Pressures
From a political perspective, Benjamin Netanyahu's willingness to resume hostilities in light of his conflicts with the Chief of Staff of the Israeli Army is noteworthy. Additionally, Donald Trump, the President of the United States, may be inclined to take such action before changes in Congress. Meanwhile, Iran is under increasing internal pressure, as its oil revenues have decreased and imports are declining. This situation may push Iran towards a patriotic war as a solution to divert public attention.
Read more: Fire on Four Oil Tankers in the Strait of Hormuz Due to Sanctions and Warnings
Military Readiness and Recent Movements
From a military standpoint, the United States is evacuating affiliated personnel and non-essential staff from advanced bases and embassies in the region. Furthermore, the country has gained the ability to conduct long-range warfare without providing visible signs. Israel is always on alert, and the simulated attack conducted last week was likely an attempt to compel the Iranians to reveal their air defense systems.
Iran may wish to avoid another war, considering the damage it would inflict on its infrastructure. However, it seems that the leaders of this country feel that war is imminent and are trying to encourage Gulf countries to pressure the United States and Israel by threatening attacks on civilian targets. If Iran feels threatened and believes an attack is imminent, it may be tempted to take preemptive action.
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