The significant decrease in Iran's oil exports to China has become clearly evident in recent months. According to investigations, the volume of Iran's oil shipments in waters near China has reached about 20 million barrels. This notable decrease indicates major changes in the oil market and China's demand for Iranian oil.
Decrease in China's Oil Imports
The amount of Iranian oil imported by China, which was estimated at times between 1 to 1.5 million barrels per day, has now in some calculations dropped to less than 100,000 barrels per day. This decrease observed in the statistics may relate to various factors, including reduced demand from China or changes in the supply and sale patterns of Iranian oil. It seems that these changes are more due to a reduction in supply rather than a drop in demand.
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Changes in Transfer Routes and Sales Arrangement
The figures for Iran's oil exports to China have been calculated based on previous oil sales models, prior to the Ramadan War. Given the changes in transfer routes, the method of supply, and the arrangement of Iranian oil sales after the war, due to the incomplete clarity of this "war arrangement," it is not possible to extract an accurate figure for exports. Currently, the changes in routes and sales methods have significantly impacted export statistics.
Moreover, the government's oil revenues also indicate that more than 100 percent of the resources projected in the 1405 budget have been realized in the first half of the year. This reflects the variable impacts in the global oil market as well as domestic effects on oil revenues. In this situation, there is a need for more precise analyses to better understand the current situation and predict the future of the oil market.
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