Research from University College London on the total ownership costs of ships powered by nuclear energy shows that this technology may become competitive by 2040, but only with significant reductions in reactor costs and effective global carbon regulations in place.
Comparative Costs and Key Variables
In this study, the cost of a typical container ship is estimated at $119.6 million, and the cost of a dual-fuel ammonia ship is estimated at $148.5 million. The equivalent nuclear cost varies between $228 million and $582 million, depending on optimistic assumptions.
Reactor costs are identified as a key variable, estimated to be between $2,600 and $12,400 per kilowatt electric. Estimates indicate that reactor production costs must be reduced by 80% for nuclear power to become an economic option, a reduction that has yet to be proven.
Challenges and Legal Barriers
Under optimal conditions, nuclear power is recognized as the cheapest propulsion option by 2040, but only if a proposed IMO carbon-neutral framework allows nuclear ships to earn additional emission credits. Otherwise, none of the nuclear scenarios can outperform conventional shipping.
Additionally, serious challenges such as insurance and liability for accidents exist. Existing nuclear liability conventions are designed for fixed reactors, not ships that cross international borders.
Research suggests that commercial nuclear ships will likely require bilateral agreements between willing governments to establish a global regulatory framework.
The fundamental question is who will cover the high costs of first-generation nuclear ships until the necessary economies of scale for this technology to become competitive are realized.
Farah Boziker, a researcher at the Marine and Ocean Research Group at University College London, stated: "Nuclear power can compete, but only with much cheaper reactors and a global emissions policy, neither of which currently exists. How both develop in the coming years will determine whether nuclear power has a place in shipping or not."
