Mohammad Hossein Memarian, a macroeconomic analyst and university lecturer, pointed out the government's revenue challenges while examining the status of budget resources and expenditures, stating: "Although the government is facing a deficit of about 500 trillion tomans, there is a possibility to manage this gap through increasing the issuance of bonds and reducing or not allocating part of the development budget." He continued that the status of oil revenues will be significantly dependent on the intensity and continuity of the siege.
Government Revenue Challenges
Memarian also referred to the status of tax revenues, saying: "There is a possibility of achieving 80 to 90 percent of the tax forecasts." He noted that by the end of 2025, tax revenues would face challenges, and forecasts for 2026 emphasize the significant non-achievement of tax revenues. However, the performance of the Tax Affairs Organization has been one of the factors preventing a sharp decline in revenues.
Status of Oil Revenues
This analyst further referred to oil and gas revenues, stating: "Another part of the government's revenue comes from the sale of oil and gas. Given the damage to South Pars, we expect a decrease in gas export revenues." He emphasized that prior to the siege, due to high oil prices, oil revenues had increased, but the siege has significantly reduced oil revenues.
Memarian concluded by stating: "Throughout all days of the siege, our oil revenue has not been zero, and it may have reached zero on some days. In five or six months, we had sales equivalent to about four months of oil sales, and that too at higher prices." He noted that the realization of oil revenues has not changed significantly compared to the past four years.
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