Matthew Gould, former Deputy Ambassador of the United Kingdom in Tehran, has highlighted the serious challenges facing the Islamic Republic of Iran in a note, stressing the need for simultaneous changes within the country and genuine support from abroad.
Government Stability in Crisis Conditions
Gould notes in this memorandum published on September 25 that despite widespread protests and the death of Ali Khamenei in attacks by the United States and Israel, the Iranian government and the Revolutionary Guard have managed to remain in power. He refers to three comments made by Donald Trump regarding the protests in Iran and emphasizes that these comments reflect international support and expectations for changes in Iran.
Gould refers to the protests of December 2025, which he claims were the most serious and widespread protests against the government, stating that these protests began particularly with a strike by merchants in the Grand Bazaar of Tehran and quickly spread to all provinces. According to him, the number of protesters in the streets of Tehran is estimated to be much more than one million.
Challenges of Power Change
He also refers to the second transformation, namely the death of Ali Khamenei on February 27, 2026, and emphasizes that if a change in leadership had led to a change in government, this would have been the best opportunity for such a change. However, the government has once again endured, and power has been transferred to a new generation that, according to Gould, is more radical.
Gould lists five essential factors for the overthrow of the government, which include the return of people to the streets, the persistence of protests after repression, the establishment of infrastructure for organizing without the internet, the weakening of security forces, and warnings about the potential for chaos following the government's fall. He emphasizes that if these five factors are met, protests may find an opportunity for success.
Given the current situation, fundamental changes in the government seem unlikely as long as the military and security forces do not waver. The Revolutionary Guard and the Basij force, as key pillars of the government, have remained loyal and maintained their ideology and economic interests.
In conclusion, Gould warns that if changes occur, foreign countries should not expect a smooth and easy transfer of power to a new government. He points to the likelihood of a power vacuum and the rise of separatist groups in the peripheral regions of Iran, presenting this as one of the serious challenges following the government's collapse.
