The suspension of Iranian flights to four main airports in Iraq has challenged the relations between Tehran and Baghdad and raised questions about the future of these relations. This decision was made following the intensification of U.S. sanctions pressures against Iran's aviation industry, and the government of Ali Al-Zaydi, the Prime Minister of Iraq, is among the governments that have accepted the implementation of this sanctions plan.
Iran's Reactions to Baghdad's Decision
This decision was immediately met with internal reactions and explicit criticisms from Iran. Analysts believe that Tehran's response to this action could lead to the deterioration of relations between the two countries. Alireza Majidi, an analyst of West Asian affairs, stated that this issue is entirely influenced by the U.S. and in his view, Al-Zaydi's decision was made due to his lack of strong political base in Iraq.
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Factors Influencing Iraq's Decision
As the Prime Minister of Iraq, Ali Al-Zaydi is compelled to rely on foreign support to stabilize his position. He considers the U.S. as the main factor behind his premiership and has therefore aligned with Washington's policies. This decision will clearly impact the relations between Tehran and Baghdad, and it seems that Iran's dissatisfaction with this action may lead to further tensions.
Considering that 46% of Iraq's electricity is dependent on energy supplies from Iran, this energy dependency could serve as a leverage for Iran in case tensions with Baghdad continue. Iran could also exert more pressure on Al-Zaydi's government by restricting oil exports to Iraq.
Forecasting the Future of Iran-Iraq Relations
Currently, there are two main variables that will influence the future of this issue: first, the intensity of internal opposition in Iraq, and second, the level of reaction from the Islamic Republic of Iran. If the intensity of these two factors exceeds the anticipated level, there is a possibility that Baghdad may reconsider its decision. As a result, the issue of halting Iranian flights to Iraq has not yet reached a final point, and future reactions must be awaited.
Read more: First Deputy Speaker of the Iraqi Parliament: The Suspension of Flights with Iran is an Ill-Advised Decision · Iran Has an Incorrect Assessment of Its Bargaining Power in the Strait of Hormuz
