Mohammad Khaki, Vice President of the Macroeconomics Commission of the Iran Chamber, stated regarding the economic outlook for the second half of 2026 that the private sector is facing serious challenges including inflation, trade restrictions, and concerns about energy supply. He outlined two different scenarios for economic actors: the continuation of the current situation with a tough outlook and the achievement of an agreement and opening up in trade relations.
Economic Challenges in the Second Half of the Year
Khaki pointed to the continuation of recession and rising inflation, saying: "If the current trend continues, the private sector will face a tough second half of the year. If an agreement is reached, Iran's economic capacities for rapid recovery are high." He added that the current conditions, especially regarding energy supply and raw material exports, do not present a very hopeful picture for economic actors.
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Difficulty in Predicting the Economic Future
The Vice President of the Macroeconomics Commission of the Iran Chamber further referred to the challenges of predicting the economic situation, stating: "In the current conditions, predicting political risks is difficult, and this uncertainty has made decision-making hard for the private sector. During wartime, economic actors knew what situation they were facing, but in the current conditions, economic planning is much harder."
Khaki also mentioned the possibility of a short-term agreement and said: "If the blockades are lifted and foreign trade conditions return to normal, Iran's economy can recover quickly." However, he emphasized that we must be in a state of full readiness and cannot be optimistic about an agreement due to uncertainty regarding the other party.
Outlook for the Second Half of the Year and Existing Scenarios
In summarizing the economic situation, Khaki noted that if the current trend continues, conditions will be difficult for the private sector. He emphasized: "If we move towards an agreement and conditions for economic activity, exports, and imports are created, there is a possibility for rapid economic recovery; therefore, the outlook for the second half of the year is heavily dependent on political developments and the extent of openings in foreign relations."
Additionally, Mohammad Reza Najafi Manesh, Head of the Business Facilitation Commission of the Tehran Chamber, stressed the necessity of maintaining hope and striving to remove production barriers, stating: "No positive event occurs without pursuit and action. We must strive for the Iranian economy to reach its deserving position."
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