The decrease in coal exports from Indonesia and the increase in imports from Australia and Russia have created significant developments in the coal and maritime transport market. According to recent reports, despite the overall decrease in China's demand for coal, the change in the source of this coal has managed to maintain the demand for ships.
Changes in Coal Sources
Research shows that China's coal imports in the first eight months of 2026 have increased by 3.4 percent compared to the previous year, reaching 310.2 million tons. However, marine coal discharge has decreased by 3.7 percent to 221.3 million tons. This situation indicates significant changes in the sources of China's imported coal.
Read more: Europe's Energy Crisis; Fuel Shortages and Rising Diesel Prices in France
Mongolia is recognized as one of the important coal suppliers for China, providing 78.4 million tons of the country's imported coal. This volume of coal accounts for more than a quarter of China's total coal imports and does not have a significant impact on the maritime transport market.
Impact on the Maritime Transport Market
Maritime transport companies, especially in various categories of ships, are experiencing different effects from these changes. Calculations show that Panamax ships have transported 132.7 million tons of marine coal to China during the first eight months of this year, representing a 1.9 percent increase compared to last year. In contrast, the volume of coal transported by Supramax ships has decreased by 27.5 percent to 32 million tons.
Indonesia is recognized as a key player in these developments. With production restrictions and low water levels in the Kalimantan rivers, the movement of coal from mines to loading ports has faced challenges. This situation has caused buyers to delay some Indonesian shipments and turn towards sourcing from Australia and Russia.
Improvement in river conditions in October and November may lead to the release of delayed Indonesian shipments, resulting in increased activity in the second half of this year.
Changes in the geography of coal supply are also evident in Banchero Costa's data. Global marine coal exports in the first eight months of this year reached 866.8 million tons, indicating a 1.7 percent increase compared to last year. Although Indonesia's exports have decreased by 5.2 percent, exports from Australia have increased by 4.9 percent, Russia by 10.1 percent, and the United States by 9.4 percent.
Meanwhile, coal imports to China and India have also decreased, with imports to China down by 5.5 percent and India by 8.1 percent. In contrast, imports to South Korea have increased by 16.9 percent and Japan by 3.1 percent. Coal remains the second major dry bulk commodity in maritime transport, accounting for nearly 23 percent of the cargo volume.
Finally, new analyses indicate that despite a significant decrease in coal volume compared to previous years, geopolitical and operational supply constraints have impacted the shipping market and limited the weak demand effects for coal.
Read more: MSC is negotiating to buy government shares of Meyer Werft in Germany · Search continues to rescue over 100 drowned in the capsized Virgo Transport 8
