The decline in shipbuilding deliveries has reached its lowest level in the last fifty years, while the global commercial fleet faces an unprecedented increase in old ships.
Statistics on Ships Sold for Scrapping
According to calculations by Clarkson Research, in the first nine months of 2026, only 273 ships weighing 5.5 million tons, equivalent to about 8 million tons DWT, have been sold for scrapping, which is 13 percent less than last year and 60 percent lower than the average of the 2000s and 2010s. Meanwhile, less than 0.5 percent of the total tonnage of the global fleet has been scrapped annually over the past five consecutive years, a figure even lower than during the supercycle of 2006-2008.
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Increase in Age of the Global Fleet
Currently, over 340 million tons of the global fleet are at least 20 years old, which is a 90 percent increase compared to five years ago and constitutes nearly 20 percent of the global fleet. Among these, over 150 million tons are older than 25 years, and 68 million tons have surpassed 30 years.
The situation is particularly striking in tankers: now 22 percent of tanker capacity is over 20 years old, while this figure was only 8 percent five years ago. In container ships, this ratio has increased to 16 percent, while orders constitute over 40 percent of the existing fleet.
Scrapping Economics and Challenges
The economics of scrapping remain unattractive during the record-breaking freight rates of the 2020s. Scrap steel prices in the Indian subcontinent have increased by 20-25 percent this year, but the Clarkson index has reached a new record of $84,951 per day, making continued operations and second-hand sales significantly more attractive.
According to the latest market assessment by Clarkson's recycling division, only 8.4 million tons DWT have been sold for scrapping since the beginning of this year. While the markets in Bangladesh and Pakistan remain interested in purchasing, in India, recyclers prefer to focus on specialized tonnage.
Cash buyer GMS stated in its latest weekly report: "The final quarter of the year has turned into a waiting game. Recyclers have the capacity and willingness to buy, but owners still have freight revenues, second-hand options, and time on their side."
The growing inventory of old ships could ultimately provide a significant release valve for the shipping fleet when freight markets eventually correct.
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