Iran's oil exports are significantly affected by the Hormuz crisis and U.S. sanctions. In the last three months of 2025, approximately 21.6 million barrels of crude oil, condensates, and petroleum products passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily. However, this figure dropped to about 4.9 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026.
Disruptions Caused by the Hormuz Crisis
This decline indicates the importance of the Strait of Hormuz not only in terms of the physical volume of oil passing through but also in its position within a network of refineries, export terminals, and long-term contracts. Disruptions in this network create costs beyond the value of halted shipments. An increase in war risk premiums, a surge in tanker rental rates, and rerouting of shipments are consequences of this crisis.
Read more: The Islamic Republic Transferred Liquid Gas Shipments at Sea
The Paradox of Iran's Influence
Recent developments indicate an important paradox: Iran's increasing influence on the risks of the global energy market can occur simultaneously with a weakening of Iran's own commercial position. With rising geopolitical risks, Gulf producers are seeking to regain their share in Asian markets. In this context, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have managed the impacts of the crisis by utilizing alternative export routes.
Iran's oil exports have faced a sharp decline due to the U.S. maritime blockade and sales restrictions. In fact, a country that plays a role in increasing geopolitical risks in the market is not necessarily one of the main beneficiaries of rising prices.
Long-Term Trends and Reducing Dependence on Hormuz
One of the long-term consequences of geopolitical crises is encouraging market players to reduce dependence on vulnerable points. Saudi Arabia has developed oil transfer routes to the Red Sea, and the United Arab Emirates has created capacities for exports without passing through the Strait of Hormuz using a pipeline to Fujairah. Oil exports from alternative routes reached 5.6 million barrels per day in September.
At the same time, oil flow from the Strait of Hormuz also increased to 10.9 million barrels per day in the same month. However, the escalation of insecurity in October has revealed the fragility of this trend. These developments indicate that while the Strait of Hormuz remains highly significant, the rising costs and uncertainties of passing through this route may increase the incentive for investment to reduce dependence on it.
Ultimately, the Hormuz crisis may lead to structural changes in the global energy market; security and reliability of supply are becoming key factors in buyers' decision-making. Refineries may reconsider their supply policies, and as a result, a return to normalcy does not necessarily mean a return to market share for exporters.
Read more: Sanctions on Tankers Limit Iran's Oil Export Route · Increase in Attacks on Ships in the Strait of Hormuz Following Decline in Oil Exports
