Crude oil exports from the Middle East reached levels higher than pre-war in the last week of September. According to received data, this increase in exports has been observed despite ongoing attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.
Increase in Crude Oil Exports
According to the provided information, crude oil exports from this region increased to over 19.5 million barrels per day on September 24 and between September 27 and 29, reaching up to 22.5 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, total oil exports averaged 18 million barrels per day between March 2025 and February this year before the onset of the war between the U.S. and Israel with Iran.
Analysis of Export Data
The average weekly crude oil exports on October 1 reached 18.5 million barrels per day. This figure includes transits through the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, exports from terminals, and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. Additionally, in the seven days leading up to September 30, total exports of oil, petroleum products, chemicals, and non-gaseous liquids were reported to average 22.4 million barrels per day.
It is noteworthy that the number of liquefied natural gas shipments also reached the highest monthly level since February. This statistic includes ships that may have illegally passed through the strait by turning off their identification systems.
Security Threats in the Strait of Hormuz
However, attacks on tankers around the Strait of Hormuz continue, and according to maritime reports, at least seven attacks have been recorded in this area. For instance, the very large tanker Kazimah III was struck by an unknown projectile on October 1, resulting in a fire on board. Fortunately, all crew members were rescued and evacuated from the ship.
The British Maritime Trade Operations reported that at least one attack per day has occurred in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2. The maritime analysis company Marisks stated that commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz face increasing and unpredictable threats.
Analysis of the Security Situation
Analysts believe that recent attack patterns may not have been deliberately targeting specific vessels, but available information suggests that Iranian forces may be launching missiles towards a designated area. This situation is particularly concerning as maritime traffic has significantly increased.
Overall, the situation of crude oil exports in the Middle East has improved despite security challenges, nearing pre-war levels. However, there is a need for special attention to the existing threats in the Strait of Hormuz, which could impact the continuation of export trends.
