The crisis management of gas imbalance in Winter 2024 is presented as a structural issue in Iran's energy economy. This challenge has continuously affected various economic sectors in recent years and raised serious questions about gas supply priorities. The main question is how to manage this shortage with a logical rule and distribute costs fairly among different sectors of the economy.
Complexities of Gas Imbalance
The discussion of gas limitations has been reduced to a simple dichotomy of residential or industrial gas. While supplying residential gas on cold days is important for everyone, the type of gas consumption and its impact on various industries has become a complex issue. In some industries, gas acts as fuel, and some units can use alternative fuels. However, in industrial units like petrochemicals, natural gas is considered a feedstock for production, which requires more precise management.
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Economic Impacts of Limitations
Shutting down a petrochemical complex is not as simple as turning off a production line. Reducing feedstock, securing equipment, and bringing the unit back into production require time and additional costs. This issue can lead to serious disruptions in foreign trade. Foreign buyers typically do not adjust their contracts based on the problems of Iran's gas network, and any disruption in supply can lead to reduced purchase volumes or the search for other suppliers.
Moreover, the costs arising from gas limitations are not limited to the value of lost production in a single day. These costs can include greater discounts, disruptions in contracts, and loss of market. Therefore, in a situation where it is expected that gas imbalance will continue in the upcoming winter, there is a need for a clear and transparent plan to manage this crisis.
Suggestions for Optimal Management
To manage the gas imbalance crisis, it must be predetermined what limitations will be imposed at each level of network deficit. Industries should be informed in advance about when there may be limitations in their feedstock supply so that they can adjust their production plans and commitments. Additionally, the difference between normal consumption and consumption significantly above the pattern should be clarified, and incentive policies should be considered to reduce consumption.
In conclusion, given the impossibility of quickly resolving the gas imbalance, policymaking should be such that while maintaining people's heating, it causes the least damage to production, exports, and the industrial chain. Otherwise, the only place to bear the cost of imbalance will change, and the issue will not be fundamentally resolved.
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