U.S. container imports in September 2026 continued their strong trend despite forecasts, reaching 2.55 million TEU, representing an increase of over 10 percent compared to last year. However, this trend is expected to decline in the fall season.
Forecast of Decline in Imports in Coming Months
The National Retail Federation (NRF) has announced that after a long peak season in imports, retailers are now mostly stocked and imports will decrease going forward. Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, stated: "Most holiday-related goods have entered the country, and the remainder of the year will be dedicated to restocking and preparing for early 2027."
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Import Details and Economic Impacts
Retail goods imports, including plastic goods, furniture, bedding, toys, and sports equipment, have been identified as key factors in the increase in import volume. Over 924,000 TEU have been imported from China, which accounts for about 36 percent of total U.S. imports. This increase may be due to the potential end of the trade tariff agreement between the U.S. and China, which was extended during the summit in Washington D.C.
Despite this increase, import volumes are expected to decline in the coming months, with NRF forecasting imports to reach 2.25 million TEU in October and drop to around 2 million TEU per month in November and December. Import volumes are also expected to decrease to 2.07 million TEU in January 2027 and 1.92 million TEU in February.
According to Ben Hacket from Hacket Associates, given the economic signals, the level of imports will gradually decrease, which means there will be a variety of goods and prices for the holiday season and year-end sales. Additionally, total imports for 2026 are expected to reach 25.8 million TEU, reflecting a 1.4 percent increase from 25.4 million TEU in 2025.
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