Iran remains an influential factor in the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz, and the passage of oil tankers largely depends on the extensive presence of the U.S. Navy. This presence is costly and difficult in the long term.
Current Status of Oil Exports
The selective war of the United States against Iran has entered its eighth month, during which Donald Trump has repeatedly exaggeratedly claimed that oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz have approached pre-war levels and that the Americans have control over the strait. However, these claims do not fully align with reality.
Analysts believe that even the situation claimed by Trump (the approach of oil exports to pre-war levels) does not indicate Washington's upper hand in developments. In fact, these claims are more presented as a tool to strengthen America's political and military position, and it seems that Washington's long-term goals should be aimed at ending the war and establishing peace.
The Necessity of Negotiation and Agreement
The Council on Foreign Relations think tank has pointed out that if the ultimate goal is to end the war, then the path of negotiation and agreement — along with conceding to Iran — is inevitable. This analysis indicates that to reduce tensions and create stability in the region, the U.S. must move towards diplomacy.
There are various reasons for this approach. First, military and economic costs are not insignificant, and continued military presence in the region could lead to further repercussions. Additionally, positive engagement with Iran could help improve relations and reduce tensions in the Middle East.
Ultimately, what is presented as a conclusion in this analysis is that the U.S. must seek diplomatic solutions to achieve its goals in the region. These matters require a reassessment of current policies and acceptance of new realities in the international arena.
Read more: Iran continues its attacks and targets the LR2 Lipsi tanker in the Strait of Hormuz · Increase in Middle Eastern crude oil exports and its impact on the global market
