China's limestone exports have increased to 5.49 million tons in the first 8 months of 2026, showing a remarkable jump from 110,000 tons in the same period last year. This change is primarily due to disruptions in the supply of raw materials from the Gulf due to the Iran war.
Severe Decline in Gulf Exports
According to analyses, limestone exports from the Gulf reached 2.8 million tons in February but fell to 100,000 tons in March, with no shipments recorded after June. Overall, Gulf exports in the first 8 months of the year totaled 5.5 million tons, representing a 73 percent decrease compared to last year, equivalent to a loss of about 15 million tons of maritime volume.
Read more: U.S. Energy Secretary: I Cannot Predict Iran's Behavior
China's Replacement as Main Supplier
China has emerged as the largest new supplier in the limestone market, compensating for nearly one-third of the Gulf's supply shortfall. India and Bangladesh are recognized as the largest buyers of these products, seeking alternatives to Gulf raw materials. Limestone is known as a key raw material in lime and cement production and plays an important role in the dry bulk trade in the Middle East.
Separate analyses indicate that exports of other dry goods from the Gulf have also significantly declined, including limestone, aggregates, sulfur, and urea. These changes in trade patterns have forced buyers to source shipments from farther regions.
Positive Changes in Freight Economics
Since limestone trade has not been severely affected, global loadings have only decreased by 1.3 percent, reaching 55.5 million tons from January to August. This indicates that alternative exporters have quickly entered the market.
This change in trade patterns has also contributed to the freight economy on eastern routes and returns. According to Ursa data, the increase in China's dry exports has bolstered outbound demand from North Asia, particularly for Supramax and Ultramax vessels. Return revenues from North China to West Africa this year account for an average of 96.4 percent of the S10TC index, compared to 91.3 percent in 2025, indicating a significant shift.
Read more: Executive Vice President: 80,000 Toman Gasoline is Not on the Government's Agenda · Damage to the East-West Pipeline in Saudi Arabia Affects the Country's Oil Exports
