Samaneh Ghaibi, a petrochemical industry expert, in her recent analysis examined the damages caused by gas supply restrictions in petrochemical complexes during the winter season. She stated that calculating damages first requires determining the extent of gas restrictions and their impact on production.
The Role of Gas in Petrochemical Production
Ghaibi stated that gas, as the main feedstock in methanol units and urea complexes, is of great importance. A gas shortage can significantly limit the production of ammonia, the primary raw material for urea production. She added that a 30% reduction in gas does not necessarily mean a 30% drop in production, and the operational conditions of each complex determine this issue.
Damage Calculations and Production Compensation
This expert further explained that let's assume a methanol complex with an annual nominal capacity of one million tons, at full operation, can produce about 2,740 tons daily. If its production is halved for 15 days, approximately 20,500 tons less product will be produced. Assuming a price of $250 per ton of methanol, the potential lost sales value would be around $5.1 million. However, this figure is not calculated as the actual loss for the company, and variable costs and other additional expenses must also be considered.
Ghaibi also noted that differences in cost structures and production processes in various complexes can lead to different economic impacts. For example, in urea complexes, gas restrictions can initially affect ammonia production and then urea, and the extent of production decline depends on the operational conditions of the ammonia unit and urea production capacity.
The Impact of Delivery Delays and Buyer Trust
Ghaibi warned about the impacts of delays in delivering products to foreign buyers, stating that repeated delays can reduce buyer trust and weaken the position of Iranian exporters in contractual negotiations. She emphasized that to calculate the actual damages, four key indicators for each complex must be identified: the extent and duration of gas restrictions, lost production, additional costs of stoppage and startup, and costs arising from delays in sales commitments.
In conclusion, Ghaibi stressed the importance of production planning based on the actual capacity of gas supply, stating that sudden restrictions can incur costs that can be prevented with proper planning.
