The Islamic Republic of Iran has entered a special situation alongside a sharp decline in oil exports, record-breaking currency prices, and insecurity in the Strait of Hormuz. While other countries in the region continue to grow their oil exports, Iran is facing serious challenges in this area.
Resignation of the Minister of Oil and Speculations
The resignation of Mohsen Paknejad from the Ministry of Oil amid intense pressure on Iran's oil exports has heightened concerns about the government's oil revenues. The official reason for the resignation has been stated as family and personal issues, but coinciding with reports of a decline in Iran's oil exports, this has fueled political speculations.
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Paknejad had stated in a video that the revenue from sold oil would be collected. However, Scott Basset, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, reported that Iran did not load any crude oil onto tankers in September. These statements have fueled concerns about the disruption of Iran's oil revenues.
Oil Export Status and Currency Crisis
Data from the tanker tracking company "Kepler" shows that oil exports from the region's countries, excluding Iran, reached about 19.5 to 22.5 million barrels per day in the last week of September, which is above the average of about 18 million barrels before the war. This comes as some media and accounts close to the power structure in Iran have attempted to question the credibility of this data.
Alongside the oil crisis, the currency market is also facing significant pressures. The price of the euro in Iran's unofficial market has surpassed 300,000 tomans, and the dollar has reached around 270,000 tomans. This is while the dollar was trading at about 135,000 tomans at the beginning of the calendar year.
Insecurity in the Strait of Hormuz and Military Threats
The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains tense, and the British Maritime Trade Operations Agency has reported that at least one attack has been recorded daily in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2. Despite this, military officials of the Islamic Republic emphasize control over the waterway. Major General Jafari, commander of the Khatam al-Anbia Air Defense Base, stated that "complete dominance over the Strait of Hormuz" has been maintained.
Senior officials of the Islamic Republic have also increased their military warnings. Major General Ali Abdollahi, Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, stated that if another war against Iran begins, "the fire will engulf everyone." Abbas Araghchi, the Foreign Minister of the Islamic Republic, also stated that if a military path is chosen again, Tehran's response will be "stronger than before."
Overall, these developments indicate simultaneous pressure on the Islamic Republic on several fronts: restrictions on oil exports, soaring currency prices, insecurity in the Strait of Hormuz, and increasing military threats. The interpretation of the new "arrangement" of the government seems to indicate that more than a managerial change, it is a sign of the government's efforts to cope with a series of economic and security crises.
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