Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have called for a ban on the transport of Russian wheat across the European Union to prevent the rerouting of Moscow's agricultural exports through European transport networks. This request has been signed by Estonia's Prime Minister, Kaja Kallas, Latvia's Prime Minister, Arturs Krišjānis Kariņš, and Lithuania's President, Gitanas Nausėda.
Reasons for the Baltic States' Request
Baltic leaders believe that Russia is targeting Ukrainian ports and transport infrastructure while seeking alternative routes for its agricultural exports, including through the Baltics. This request comes as Russian wheat flows have significantly shifted from the Black Sea.
Increased Wheat Loading from Baltic Ports
Research by IFCHOR Galbraiths shows that wheat loading from Baltic and continental Russian ports increased to 1.16 million tons in September, more than five times the 216,000 tons loaded in August. The ports of Ust-Luga and Vysotsk have loaded 545,000 and 374,000 tons, respectively. Meanwhile, loading from Russia's Black and Azov Seas has decreased from 1.39 million tons to 201,000 tons.
Statistics indicate that the Baltic's share of total loadings has risen from 12.6 percent in August to 80.7 percent in September. In this context, Moscow is supporting this shift through subsidized rail transport and converting fertilizer and other bulk cargo terminals to wheat.
National Actions by Estonia and Latvia
Estonia has initiated national measures, with the government approving sanctions earlier this month that prohibit the transport of Russian and Belarusian wheat through Estonian ports. Latvia is also preparing actions to target shipments suspected of originating from occupied Ukraine by tightening origin checks on wheat at its ports.
The governments of the three Baltic countries are now pushing Brussels to adopt common regulations instead of relying on scattered national restrictions. This change in trade patterns also carries costs.
IFCHOR Galbraiths estimates that transporting wheat from Baltic Russia to Egypt costs about 30 to 35 percent more per ton compared to shipping from traditional Black Sea ports.
While longer Baltic routes to buyers in North Africa and the Mediterranean may help demand for ton-miles and employment in cargo ships, this shift has not been able to compensate for the shortfall in Black Sea loadings.
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