Tankers in the Strait of Hormuz have reached ٨٠% of pre-war export levels. While the cost of transit and the risk of escalating attacks keep the market volatile, the United States appears to have more control over this strategic route as a key player in these equations.
Oil Exports and Price Impact
Although a few months ago, the increase in oil exports was considered a significant achievement for the United States, Brent crude oil prices remain at the high level of $١٠٠ per barrel. This situation has created new challenges for the Donald Trump administration. The $١٠٠ mark has become a benchmark for assessing Trump's success or failure in the oil arena. Current oil prices can influence investor behavior, and crossing this threshold seems likely to have negative repercussions for the U.S. government.
Read more: Abbas Araghchi: The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is conditional on accepting Iran's terms
Developments in the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz, through which about ١٧ million barrels of crude oil pass daily, was completely blocked at the beginning of the war, forcing exporters to use alternative routes. In mid-March, oil exports fell to ٢٥% of normal levels, dropping to less than ٤.٥ million barrels per day. However, last week, according to Vortexa data, crude oil shipments reached the highest level in the last six months at ١٤ million barrels per day. This statistic indicates an increase in tanker traffic in the region.
However, challenges remain. The shortage of refined products, especially diesel, continues to be one of the biggest problems in the oil market. Shipments of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel have only reached ٥٠% of normal levels, while moving refined products is more expensive than transporting crude oil. Additionally, some refineries in the Persian Gulf region that were targeted in attacks have not yet returned to full operation.
Ultimately, the oil market is in a state of waiting and watching. Iran's entry into the negotiation table could significantly lower prices, but an escalation of attacks on energy infrastructure is likely to dramatically increase oil prices.
Read more: South Korea's $٥٠ billion investment brings the Alaska LNG project closer to construction · CEO of Iraq's tanker company: We have passed two million barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz
